Pitch Radar

Brest vs Paris FC: what the numbers say

Ligue 1 · Round 12 · 28 Nov 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win29%Brest
Draw29%
Away win41%Paris FC
Expected points, home1.17

What to expect

A slight edge to Paris FC: 41% against 29%. Attack against defence: level, 1.44 and 1.50 expected goals a match. Brest are 4.0 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Brest87913.0−4.02.241.29
Paris FC661112.8−1.81.720.63

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All Ligue 1 matches with xG → · Full Ligue 1 xPTS table →