Pitch Radar

Le Havre vs Paris Saint-Germain: what the numbers say

Ligue 1 · Round 9 · 31 Oct 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win14%Le Havre
Draw18%
Away win68%Paris Saint-Germain
Expected points, home0.61

What to expect

Paris Saint-Germain are favourites: 68% to win against 14%. Attack against defence: Paris Saint-Germain should create more, 2.12 expected goals a match against 1.23. Le Havre are 2.4 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Le Havre18524.4−2.41.312.06
Paris Saint-Germain6589.7−1.72.191.16

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All Ligue 1 matches with xG → · Full Ligue 1 xPTS table →