The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
Paris Saint-Germain are favourites: 68% to win against 14%. Attack against defence: Paris Saint-Germain should create more, 2.12 expected goals a match against 1.23. Le Havre are 2.4 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le Havre | 18 | 5 | 2 | 4.4 | −2.4 | 1.31 | 2.06 |
| Paris Saint-Germain | 6 | 5 | 8 | 9.7 | −1.7 | 2.19 | 1.16 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.