Pitch Radar

Monaco vs Lille: what the numbers say

Ligue 1 · Round 8 · 24 Oct 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win47%Monaco
Draw26%
Away win27%Lille
Expected points, home1.68

What to expect

A slight edge to Monaco: 47% against 27%. Attack against defence: level, 1.50 and 1.40 expected goals a match. Read the table with care: Monaco have taken 6.2 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Monaco15136.8+6.21.231.32
Lille45106.1+3.91.481.78

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All Ligue 1 matches with xG → · Full Ligue 1 xPTS table →