Pitch Radar

Strasbourg vs Auxerre: what the numbers say

Ligue 1 · Round 9 · 31 Oct 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win48%Strasbourg
Draw23%
Away win29%Auxerre
Expected points, home1.67

What to expect

A slight edge to Strasbourg: 48% against 29%. Attack against defence: level, 1.72 and 1.65 expected goals a match. Read the table with care: Strasbourg have taken 2.4 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Strasbourg8574.6+2.41.291.92
Auxerre10565.7+0.31.372.14

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All Ligue 1 matches with xG → · Full Ligue 1 xPTS table →