Pitch Radar

Toulouse vs Rennes: what the numbers say

Ligue 1 · Round 12 · 28 Nov 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win58%Toulouse
Draw18%
Away win24%Rennes
Expected points, home1.91

What to expect

Toulouse are favourites: 58% to win against 24%. Attack against defence: level, 1.99 and 1.85 expected goals a match. Toulouse are 4.0 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Toulouse77913.0−4.02.011.45
Rennes36139.8+3.22.241.97

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All Ligue 1 matches with xG → · Full Ligue 1 xPTS table →