Pitch Radar

Toulouse vs Rennes: match prediction

Toulouse
VS
Rennes
Ligue 1 · Round 12 · 29 Nov 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win57%Toulouse
Draw19%
Away win24%Rennes
Expected points, home1.90

What to expect

Toulouse are favourites: 57% to win against 24%. Attack against defence: level, 1.88 and 1.75 expected goals a match. Toulouse are 5.0 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Toulouse12101318.0−5.01.761.25
Rennes8101616.3−0.32.261.99

Recent matches

Chances come from both teams' strength by xG with a home advantage; line-ups and injuries are not part of the calculation.

All Ligue 1 matches with xG → · Full Ligue 1 xPTS table → · Ligue 1: next round predictions