The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
A slight edge to Dynamo Moscow: 49% against 23%. Attack against defence: level, 1.21 and 1.07 expected goals a match. Read the table with care: Krasnodar have taken 6.5 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dynamo Moscow | 1 | 10 | 22 | 16.7 | +5.3 | 1.34 | 0.90 |
| Krasnodar | 4 | 10 | 21 | 14.5 | +6.5 | 1.25 | 1.08 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.