The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
A slight edge to Krylia Sovetov: 42% against 29%. Attack against defence: Krylia Sovetov should create more, 1.27 expected goals a match against 1.03. Krylia Sovetov are 1.6 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rostov | 9 | 10 | 11 | 10.6 | +0.4 | 0.82 | 1.22 |
| Krylia Sovetov | 10 | 9 | 11 | 12.6 | −1.6 | 1.33 | 1.25 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.