The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
A slight edge to Akhmat Grozny: 53% against 23%. Attack against defence: Akhmat Grozny should create more, 1.39 expected goals a match against 1.18. Akhmat Grozny are 5.1 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Akhmat Grozny | 14 | 12 | 11 | 16.1 | −5.1 | 1.08 | 1.09 |
| Lokomotiv Moscow | 13 | 12 | 11 | 12.8 | −1.8 | 1.27 | 1.70 |
They have already met this season: Lokomotiv Moscow 1:1 Akhmat Grozny (2026-07-26).
Chances come from both teams' strength by xG with a home advantage; line-ups and injuries are not part of the calculation.
All RPL matches with xG → · Full RPL xPTS table → · RPL: next round predictions