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Zenit vs Orenburg: match prediction

Zenit
VS
Orenburg
RPL · Round 19 · 6 Mar 2027 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win55%Zenit
Draw25%
Away win20%Orenburg
Expected points, home1.89

What to expect

Zenit are favourites: 55% to win against 20%. Attack against defence: Zenit should create more, 1.35 expected goals a match against 1.12. Read the table with care: Zenit have taken 5.4 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Zenit1143125.6+5.41.570.92
Orenburg10141720.3−3.31.331.14

Head to head

They have already met this season: FC Orenburg 0:3 Zenit St. Petersburg (2026-08-02).

Recent matches

Zenit St. Petersburg — FC Rostov 2:2Krylya Sovetov Samara — Zenit St. Petersburg 0:3Zenit St. Petersburg — Dynamo Makhachkala 2:0Zenit St. Petersburg — FK Akhmat 3:2FC Krasnodar — Zenit St. Petersburg 2:3
Krylya Sovetov Samara — FC Orenburg 2:0FC Orenburg — CSKA Moscow 0:0FK Akhmat — FC Orenburg 0:1Rodina — FC Orenburg 2:2FC Orenburg — Dynamo Makhachkala 4:0

Chances come from both teams' strength by xG with a home advantage; line-ups and injuries are not part of the calculation.

All RPL matches with xG → · Full RPL xPTS table → · RPL: next round predictions