Pitch Radar

AC Milan vs Frosinone: what the numbers say

Serie A · Round 12 · 22 Nov 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win76%AC Milan
Draw13%
Away win11%Frosinone
Expected points, home2.40

What to expect

AC Milan are favourites: 76% to win against 11%. Attack against defence: AC Milan should create more, 2.18 expected goals a match against 1.50. Read the table with care: Frosinone have taken 5.6 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
AC Milan471512.6+2.42.021.31
Frosinone67137.4+5.61.692.34

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All Serie A matches with xG → · Full Serie A xPTS table →