Pitch Radar

Cagliari vs Frosinone: what the numbers say

Serie A · Round 11 · 8 Nov 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win43%Cagliari
Draw23%
Away win33%Frosinone
Expected points, home1.53

What to expect

A slight edge to Cagliari: 43% against 33%. Attack against defence: level, 1.73 and 1.67 expected goals a match. Read the table with care: Cagliari have taken 7.0 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Cagliari46136.0+7.01.041.86
Frosinone96105.3+4.71.482.42

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All Serie A matches with xG → · Full Serie A xPTS table →