Pitch Radar

Napoli vs Frosinone: what the numbers say

Serie A · Round 6 · 11 Oct 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win69%Napoli
Draw17%
Away win14%Frosinone
Expected points, home2.23

What to expect

Napoli are favourites: 69% to win against 14%. Attack against defence: Napoli should create more, 1.99 expected goals a match against 1.47. Read the table with care: Frosinone have taken 4.8 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Napoli9578.8−1.81.781.32
Frosinone65105.2+4.81.622.20

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All Serie A matches with xG → · Full Serie A xPTS table →