The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
Napoli are favourites: 85% to win against 6%. Attack against defence: Napoli should create more, 2.38 expected goals a match against 1.40. Napoli are 4.8 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.
Chances come from both teams' strength by xG with a home advantage; line-ups and injuries are not part of the calculation.
All Serie A matches with xG → · Full Serie A xPTS table → · Serie A: next round predictions