Parma vs Fiorentina: match prediction
ParmaVS
FiorentinaThe match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
Home win22%Parma
Draw23%
Away win55%Fiorentina
Expected points, home0.89
What to expect
Fiorentina are favourites: 55% to win against 22%. Attack against defence: Fiorentina should create more, 1.90 expected goals a match against 1.38. Fiorentina are 5.4 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.
How they arrive
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parma | 16 | 11 | 8 | 7.2 | +0.8 | 0.89 | 2.16 |
| Fiorentina | 15 | 11 | 9 | 14.4 | −5.4 | 1.64 | 1.87 |
Recent matches
Parma Calcio 1913 — 
Bologna 1:2
Atalanta — Parma Calcio 1913 0:3Parma Calcio 1913 — 
Udinese 0:0
Lazio — Parma Calcio 1913 2:1Parma Calcio 1913 — 
Torino 0:3Fiorentina — 
Juventus 2:2
Sassuolo — Fiorentina 2:4Fiorentina — Atalanta 2:2
Inter — Fiorentina 2:1Fiorentina — 
Como 1:3Chances come from both teams' strength by xG with a home advantage; line-ups and injuries are not part of the calculation.
All Serie A matches with xG → · Full Serie A xPTS table → · Serie A: next round predictions