Pitch Radar

Parma vs Roma: what the numbers say

Serie A · Round 12 · 22 Nov 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win6%Parma
Draw12%
Away win82%Roma
Expected points, home0.30

What to expect

Roma are favourites: 82% to win against 6%. Attack against defence: Roma should create more, 2.33 expected goals a match against 0.99. Read the table with care: Roma have taken 1.6 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Parma19744.8−0.80.852.01
Roma371715.4+1.62.661.13

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All Serie A matches with xG → · Full Serie A xPTS table →