Pitch Radar

Roma vs Sassuolo: what the numbers say

Serie A · Round 11 · 8 Nov 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win77%Roma
Draw13%
Away win10%Sassuolo
Expected points, home2.45

What to expect

Roma are favourites: 77% to win against 10%. Attack against defence: Roma should create more, 2.27 expected goals a match against 1.51.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Roma361413.2+0.82.871.24
Sassuolo10688.5−0.51.781.68

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All Serie A matches with xG → · Full Serie A xPTS table →