The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
Sassuolo are favourites: 61% to win against 20%. Attack against defence: Sassuolo should create more, 1.90 expected goals a match against 1.59. Fiorentina are 2.3 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sassuolo | 10 | 5 | 7 | 7.6 | −0.6 | 1.86 | 1.65 |
| Fiorentina | 17 | 5 | 4 | 6.3 | −2.3 | 1.53 | 1.93 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.