Pitch Radar

Torino vs Lecce: what the numbers say

Serie A · Round 11 · 8 Nov 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win69%Torino
Draw18%
Away win13%Lecce
Expected points, home2.25

What to expect

Torino are favourites: 69% to win against 13%. Attack against defence: Torino should create more, 2.02 expected goals a match against 1.31. Read the table with care: Lecce have taken 3.1 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Torino12677.6−0.61.241.38
Lecce13662.9+3.11.252.80

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All Serie A matches with xG → · Full Serie A xPTS table →