Points. 3 points from 3.4 xPTS (−0.4). By quality of play (xPTS) the club sits exactly where it is in the table: 15th. Points match the quality of play.
Attack. 1.03 xG per match — 17th of 20 (league average 1.72): the attack creates less than most rivals. Scored 4 goals from 4.1 xG — finishing is on par.
Defence. 1.75 xGA per match — 12th of 20 for solidity (league average 1.72). Conceded 7 goals from 7.0 xGA — exactly in line with the chances allowed.
Playing to its level. Points (3) are close to the quality of play (3.4 xPTS).
The solid line is points won, the dashed line is expected points (xPTS). The gap shows how far results run ahead of performance, or behind it.
Current pace is 0.75 points per match, the pace expected from the next opponents is 1.07. Over the next 5 rounds the model gives 5.4 points. Expected points come from the opponent's attack and defence with a home advantage adjustment.
| Opponent | Venue | Date | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna | away | 2026-09-19 | 0.61 |
| Udinese | home | 2026-10-11 | 1.70 |
| Parma | away | 2026-10-17 | 1.53 |
| Monza | home | 2026-10-25 | 0.85 |
| Como | home | 2026-10-28 | 0.68 |