Pitch Radar

Torino vs Monza: what the numbers say

Serie A · Round 8 · 25 Oct 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win23%Torino
Draw25%
Away win52%Monza
Expected points, home0.95

What to expect

A slight edge to Monza: 52% against 23%. Attack against defence: Monza should create more, 1.76 expected goals a match against 1.25. Monza are 4.7 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Torino14545.0−1.01.011.54
Monza16548.7−4.71.981.48

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All Serie A matches with xG → · Full Serie A xPTS table →