Pitch Radar

Venezia vs Udinese: what the numbers say

Serie A · Round 11 · 8 Nov 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win60%Venezia
Draw17%
Away win22%Udinese
Expected points, home1.99

What to expect

Venezia are favourites: 60% to win against 22%. Attack against defence: level, 2.06 and 1.92 expected goals a match. Venezia are 6.7 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Venezia20606.7−6.71.952.55
Udinese15645.2−1.21.282.16

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All Serie A matches with xG → · Full Serie A xPTS table →