The score and the xG side by side. Where they disagree, someone rode their luck or wasted chances — and that is exactly how the season-long gap builds up.
| Match | Score | xG | Who deserved it |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3:1 | 2.28 : 1.40 | deserved | |
| 1:0 | 2.03 : 0.89 | deserved | |
| 1:0 | 1.08 : 0.35 | deserved | |
| 1:1 | 0.62 : 0.91 | even by chances | |
| 3:1 | 0.98 : 1.57 | got lucky | |
| 1:2 | 1.24 : 2.12 | deserved | |
| 2:0 | 2.20 : 0.73 | deserved | |
| 1:0 | 2.55 : 0.53 | deserved | |
| 1:3 | 2.39 : 2.65 | even by chances | |
| 4:4 | 3.55 : 2.92 | dropped points |
Manchester United — 3.55 xG. Opponent: Aston Villa. Result: a draw.
Manchester City: 1.57 xG against the opponent's 0.98. Result: a defeat.