The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
No clear favourite: 40% home, 22% draw, 37% away. Attack against defence: Chelsea should create more, 1.77 expected goals a match against 1.60. Sunderland are 4.7 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland | 20 | 8 | 5 | 9.7 | −4.7 | 1.51 | 1.99 |
| Chelsea | 5 | 8 | 13 | 10.2 | +2.8 | 1.55 | 1.69 |
Chances come from both teams' strength by xG with a home advantage; line-ups and injuries are not part of the calculation.
All EPL matches with xG → · Full EPL xPTS table → · EPL: next round predictions