The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
Manchester United are favourites: 63% to win against 17%. Attack against defence: Manchester United should create more, 1.79 expected goals a match against 1.42. Manchester United are 3.3 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United | 16 | 8 | 7 | 10.3 | −3.3 | 1.67 | 1.65 |
| Aston Villa | 9 | 8 | 11 | 8.3 | +2.7 | 1.20 | 1.92 |
Chances come from both teams' strength by xG with a home advantage; line-ups and injuries are not part of the calculation.
All EPL matches with xG → · Full EPL xPTS table → · EPL: next round predictions