The score and the xG side by side. Where they disagree, someone rode their luck or wasted chances — and that is exactly how the season-long gap builds up.
| Match | Score | xG | Who deserved it |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brentford — Chelsea | 3:0 | 2.48 : 0.89 | deserved |
| Tottenham Hotspur — Aston Villa | 2:3 | 1.72 : 1.71 | even by chances |
| Newcastle United — Hull City | 2:1 | 1.38 : 1.16 | even by chances |
| Brighton — Arsenal | 3:0 | 2.11 : 1.24 | deserved |
| Everton — Ipswich Town | 1:0 | 2.58 : 1.10 | deserved |
| Nottingham Forest — Coventry City | 0:1 | 1.32 : 0.69 | got lucky |
| Manchester City — Sunderland | 5:3 | 2.67 : 3.11 | even by chances |
| Leeds United — Crystal Palace | 0:0 | 1.09 : 1.13 | even by chances |
| Bournemouth — Liverpool | 0:1 | 0.94 : 1.29 | even by chances |
| Fulham — Manchester United | 1:1 | 1.72 : 2.12 | even by chances |
Sunderland — 3.11 xG. Opponent: Manchester City. Result: a defeat.
Nottingham Forest: 1.32 xG against the opponent's 0.69. Result: a defeat.