The score and the xG side by side. Where they disagree, someone rode their luck or wasted chances — and that is exactly how the season-long gap builds up.
| Match | Score | xG | Who deserved it |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth — Brentford | 2:2 | 2.55 : 0.79 | dropped points |
| Aston Villa — Nottingham Forest | 1:2 | 1.09 : 2.79 | deserved |
| Chelsea — Hull City | 2:2 | 1.21 : 1.80 | dropped points |
| Crystal Palace — Ipswich Town | 2:3 | 0.94 : 2.03 | deserved |
| Liverpool — Fulham | 0:0 | 1.80 : 0.92 | dropped points |
| Tottenham Hotspur — Everton | 0:0 | 0.74 : 1.60 | dropped points |
| Sunderland — Arsenal | 0:2 | 2.07 : 1.99 | even by chances |
| Coventry City — Brighton | 0:5 | 1.05 : 2.77 | deserved |
| Manchester United — Manchester City | 0:1 | 0.94 : 1.14 | even by chances |
| Leeds United — Newcastle United | 4:1 | 2.29 : 0.79 | deserved |
Nottingham Forest — 2.79 xG. Opponent: Aston Villa. Result: a win.
Bournemouth: 2.55 xG against the opponent's 0.79. Result: a draw.