The score and the xG side by side. Where they disagree, someone rode their luck or wasted chances — and that is exactly how the season-long gap builds up.
| Match | Score | xG | Who deserved it |
|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa — Como | 1:4 | 0.92 : 2.01 | deserved |
| Fiorentina — Torino | 1:2 | 1.36 : 0.77 | got lucky |
| Inter — Napoli | 3:2 | 3.78 : 2.32 | deserved |
| Roma — Atalanta | 2:1 | 3.54 : 0.77 | deserved |
| Frosinone — Venezia | 3:2 | 1.79 : 2.44 | got lucky |
| Parma — Monza | 1:1 | 0.62 : 2.10 | dropped points |
| Bologna — Sassuolo | 2:2 | 3.01 : 1.84 | dropped points |
| Juventus — AC Milan | 1:1 | 1.69 : 0.09 | dropped points |
| Cagliari — Lecce | 1:0 | 1.92 : 0.45 | deserved |
| Udinese — Lazio | 1:2 | 0.80 : 1.98 | deserved |
Inter — 3.78 xG. Opponent: Napoli. Result: a win.
Juventus: 1.69 xG against the opponent's 0.09. Result: a draw.