The table shows the result, xPTS shows the quality of play. Below both clubs sit side by side on every metric: where the gap is real and where luck made it.
| Hamburger SV | 1. FC Köln | |
|---|---|---|
| Place | 11 | 12 |
| Points | 9 | 8 |
| xPTS | 6 | 10.7 |
| Δ points − xPTS | +3.0 | −2.7 |
| xG per match | 1.08 | 1.81 |
| xGA per match | 2.02 | 1.64 |
| Scored | 6 | 8 |
| Conceded | 16 | 11 |
By quality of play 1. FC Köln is ahead: 10.7 xPTS against 6.0. In the table the gap is 1 points. The gap between points and play — Hamburger SV: +3.0, 1. FC Köln: −2.7.
Expected points over the coming rounds: Hamburger SV — 4.3, 1. FC Köln — 7.1.