The table shows the result, xPTS shows the quality of play. Below both clubs sit side by side on every metric: where the gap is real and where luck made it.
| Paderborn | Union Berlin | |
|---|---|---|
| Place | 15 | 16 |
| Points | 4 | 4 |
| xPTS | 4 | 4.4 |
| Δ points − xPTS | −0.0 | −0.4 |
| xG per match | 1.03 | 1.23 |
| xGA per match | 2.03 | 2.63 |
| Scored | 3 | 5 |
| Conceded | 7 | 17 |
By quality of play they are level: 4.0 xPTS against 4.4. The gap between points and play — Paderborn: −0.0, Union Berlin: −0.4.
Expected points over the coming rounds: Paderborn — 4.8, Union Berlin — 2.3.