The table shows the result, xPTS shows the quality of play. Below both clubs sit side by side on every metric: where the gap is real and where luck made it.
| Arsenal | Brentford | |
|---|---|---|
| Place | 2 | 4 |
| Points | 12 | 9 |
| xPTS | 9.8 | 8.4 |
| Δ points − xPTS | +2.2 | +0.6 |
| xG per match | 1.88 | 2.1 |
| xGA per match | 1.09 | 1.5 |
| Scored | 8 | 10 |
| Conceded | 4 | 4 |
By quality of play Arsenal is ahead: 9.8 xPTS against 8.4. In the table the gap is 3 points. The gap between points and play — Arsenal: +2.2, Brentford: +0.6.
Expected points over the coming rounds: Arsenal — 8.7, Brentford — 8.2.