The table shows the result, xPTS shows the quality of play. Below both clubs sit side by side on every metric: where the gap is real and where luck made it.
| Brentford | Chelsea | |
|---|---|---|
| Place | 4 | 5 |
| Points | 10 | 10 |
| xPTS | 9.4 | 7.2 |
| Δ points − xPTS | +0.6 | +2.8 |
| xG per match | 1.97 | 1.72 |
| xGA per match | 1.55 | 2 |
| Scored | 12 | 15 |
| Conceded | 6 | 13 |
By quality of play Brentford is ahead: 9.4 xPTS against 7.2. In the table they are level. The gap between points and play — Brentford: +0.6, Chelsea: +2.8.
Expected points over the coming rounds: Brentford — 7.2, Chelsea — 6.3.