The table shows the result, xPTS shows the quality of play. Below both clubs sit side by side on every metric: where the gap is real and where luck made it.
| Chelsea | Brentford | |
|---|---|---|
| Place | 4 | 6 |
| Points | 13 | 10 |
| xPTS | 9.4 | 10.2 |
| Δ points − xPTS | +3.6 | −0.2 |
| xG per match | 1.7 | 1.81 |
| xGA per match | 1.79 | 1.55 |
| Scored | 17 | 13 |
| Conceded | 13 | 8 |
By quality of play they are level: 9.4 xPTS against 10.2. The gap between points and play — Chelsea: +3.6, Brentford: −0.2.
Expected points over the coming rounds: Chelsea — 6.4, Brentford — 6.6.