The table shows the result, xPTS shows the quality of play. Below both clubs sit side by side on every metric: where the gap is real and where luck made it.
| Crystal Palace | Aston Villa | |
|---|---|---|
| Place | 15 | 16 |
| Points | 4 | 4 |
| xPTS | 5.4 | 4 |
| Δ points − xPTS | −1.4 | +0.0 |
| xG per match | 1.52 | 1 |
| xGA per match | 2 | 2.17 |
| Scored | 6 | 4 |
| Conceded | 11 | 9 |
By quality of play Crystal Palace is ahead: 5.4 xPTS against 4.0. In the table they are level. The gap between points and play — Crystal Palace: −1.4, Aston Villa: +0.0.
Expected points over the coming rounds: Crystal Palace — 5.7, Aston Villa — 3.4.