The table shows the result, xPTS shows the quality of play. Below both clubs sit side by side on every metric: where the gap is real and where luck made it.
| Fulham | Nottingham Forest | |
|---|---|---|
| Place | 16 | 17 |
| Points | 5 | 5 |
| xPTS | 9.6 | 11.4 |
| Δ points − xPTS | −4.6 | −6.4 |
| xG per match | 1.72 | 2.04 |
| xGA per match | 1.69 | 1.21 |
| Scored | 7 | 5 |
| Conceded | 10 | 8 |
By quality of play Nottingham Forest is ahead: 11.4 xPTS against 9.6. In the table they are level. The gap between points and play — Fulham: −4.6, Nottingham Forest: −6.4.
Expected points over the coming rounds: Fulham — 7.3, Nottingham Forest — 8.4.