The table shows the result, xPTS shows the quality of play. Below both clubs sit side by side on every metric: where the gap is real and where luck made it.
| Manchester City | Brentford | |
|---|---|---|
| Place | 1 | 4 |
| Points | 15 | 9 |
| xPTS | 9.6 | 8.4 |
| Δ points − xPTS | +5.4 | +0.6 |
| xG per match | 2.21 | 2.1 |
| xGA per match | 1.44 | 1.5 |
| Scored | 13 | 10 |
| Conceded | 5 | 4 |
By quality of play Manchester City is ahead: 9.6 xPTS against 8.4. In the table the gap is 6 points. The gap between points and play — Manchester City: +5.4, Brentford: +0.6.
Expected points over the coming rounds: Manchester City — 8.9, Brentford — 8.2.