The table shows the result, xPTS shows the quality of play. Below both clubs sit side by side on every metric: where the gap is real and where luck made it.
| Manchester United | Nottingham Forest | |
|---|---|---|
| Place | 12 | 13 |
| Points | 5 | 5 |
| xPTS | 8.3 | 9.2 |
| Δ points − xPTS | −3.4 | −4.2 |
| xG per match | 2.12 | 1.7 |
| xGA per match | 1.44 | 1 |
| Scored | 8 | 4 |
| Conceded | 8 | 5 |
By quality of play they are level: 8.3 xPTS against 9.2. The gap between points and play — Manchester United: −3.4, Nottingham Forest: −4.2.
Expected points over the coming rounds: Manchester United — 10.0, Nottingham Forest — 8.5.