The table shows the result, xPTS shows the quality of play. Below both clubs sit side by side on every metric: where the gap is real and where luck made it.
| Newcastle United | Aston Villa | |
|---|---|---|
| Place | 11 | 12 |
| Points | 8 | 8 |
| xPTS | 6.7 | 8 |
| Δ points − xPTS | +1.3 | +0.0 |
| xG per match | 1.24 | 1.27 |
| xGA per match | 1.87 | 1.87 |
| Scored | 10 | 7 |
| Conceded | 14 | 11 |
By quality of play Aston Villa is ahead: 8.0 xPTS against 6.7. In the table they are level. The gap between points and play — Newcastle United: +1.3, Aston Villa: +0.0.
Expected points over the coming rounds: Newcastle United — 4.1, Aston Villa — 5.0.