The table shows the result, xPTS shows the quality of play. Below both clubs sit side by side on every metric: where the gap is real and where luck made it.
| Brest | Toulouse | |
|---|---|---|
| Place | 8 | 9 |
| Points | 9 | 9 |
| xPTS | 13 | 13 |
| Δ points − xPTS | −4.0 | −4.0 |
| xG per match | 2.24 | 2.01 |
| xGA per match | 1.29 | 1.45 |
| Scored | 13 | 12 |
| Conceded | 10 | 11 |
By quality of play they are level: 13.0 xPTS against 13.0. The gap between points and play — Brest: −4.0, Toulouse: −4.0.
Expected points over the coming rounds: Brest — 9.2, Toulouse — 9.6.