The table shows the result, xPTS shows the quality of play. Below both clubs sit side by side on every metric: where the gap is real and where luck made it.
| Toulouse | Lorient | |
|---|---|---|
| Place | 9 | 10 |
| Points | 9 | 8 |
| xPTS | 13 | 7.3 |
| Δ points − xPTS | −4.0 | +0.7 |
| xG per match | 2.01 | 1.05 |
| xGA per match | 1.45 | 1.18 |
| Scored | 12 | 6 |
| Conceded | 11 | 6 |
By quality of play Toulouse is ahead: 13.0 xPTS against 7.3. In the table the gap is 1 points. The gap between points and play — Toulouse: −4.0, Lorient: +0.7.
Expected points over the coming rounds: Toulouse — 9.6, Lorient — 6.5.