The table shows the result, xPTS shows the quality of play. Below both clubs sit side by side on every metric: where the gap is real and where luck made it.
| Lens | Brest | |
|---|---|---|
| Place | 7 | 8 |
| Points | 10 | 9 |
| xPTS | 12.2 | 13 |
| Δ points − xPTS | −2.2 | −4.0 |
| xG per match | 2.25 | 2.24 |
| xGA per match | 1.54 | 1.29 |
| Scored | 14 | 13 |
| Conceded | 11 | 10 |
By quality of play they are level: 12.2 xPTS against 13.0. The gap between points and play — Lens: −2.2, Brest: −4.0.
Expected points over the coming rounds: Lens — 8.5, Brest — 9.2.