The table shows the result, xPTS shows the quality of play. Below both clubs sit side by side on every metric: where the gap is real and where luck made it.
| Lorient | Nice | |
|---|---|---|
| Place | 8 | 9 |
| Points | 8 | 8 |
| xPTS | 7.3 | 6.5 |
| Δ points − xPTS | +0.7 | +1.5 |
| xG per match | 1.05 | 1.17 |
| xGA per match | 1.18 | 1.71 |
| Scored | 6 | 5 |
| Conceded | 6 | 7 |
By quality of play they are level: 7.3 xPTS against 6.5. The gap between points and play — Lorient: +0.7, Nice: +1.5.
Expected points over the coming rounds: Lorient — 6.4, Nice — 3.7.