The table shows the result, xPTS shows the quality of play. Below both clubs sit side by side on every metric: where the gap is real and where luck made it.
| Nice | Toulouse | |
|---|---|---|
| Place | 10 | 11 |
| Points | 11 | 10 |
| xPTS | 7.7 | 14.4 |
| Δ points − xPTS | +3.3 | −4.5 |
| xG per match | 1.11 | 1.82 |
| xGA per match | 1.76 | 1.31 |
| Scored | 8 | 12 |
| Conceded | 10 | 11 |
By quality of play Toulouse is ahead: 14.4 xPTS against 7.7. In the table the gap is 1 points. The gap between points and play — Nice: +3.3, Toulouse: −4.5.
Expected points over the coming rounds: Nice — 5.1, Toulouse — 8.5.