The table shows the result, xPTS shows the quality of play. Below both clubs sit side by side on every metric: where the gap is real and where luck made it.
| Atalanta | Genoa | |
|---|---|---|
| Place | 12 | 13 |
| Points | 11 | 10 |
| xPTS | 8.8 | 8.7 |
| Δ points − xPTS | +2.2 | +1.3 |
| xG per match | 1.58 | 0.93 |
| xGA per match | 2.16 | 1.45 |
| Scored | 16 | 8 |
| Conceded | 17 | 13 |
By quality of play they are level: 8.8 xPTS against 8.7. The gap between points and play — Atalanta: +2.2, Genoa: +1.3.
Expected points over the coming rounds: Atalanta — 5.2, Genoa — 4.6.