The table shows the result, xPTS shows the quality of play. Below both clubs sit side by side on every metric: where the gap is real and where luck made it.
| Frosinone | AC Milan | |
|---|---|---|
| Place | 4 | 6 |
| Points | 13 | 12 |
| xPTS | 7.4 | 10.7 |
| Δ points − xPTS | +5.6 | +1.3 |
| xG per match | 1.69 | 1.93 |
| xGA per match | 2.34 | 1.21 |
| Scored | 13 | 11 |
| Conceded | 9 | 5 |
By quality of play AC Milan is ahead: 10.7 xPTS against 7.4. In the table the gap is 1 points. The gap between points and play — Frosinone: +5.6, AC Milan: +1.3.
Expected points over the coming rounds: Frosinone — 7.0, AC Milan — 9.5.