The table shows the result, xPTS shows the quality of play. Below both clubs sit side by side on every metric: where the gap is real and where luck made it.
| Genoa | Lecce | |
|---|---|---|
| Place | 13 | 14 |
| Points | 10 | 9 |
| xPTS | 8.7 | 7.3 |
| Δ points − xPTS | +1.3 | +1.7 |
| xG per match | 0.93 | 1.57 |
| xGA per match | 1.45 | 2.49 |
| Scored | 8 | 10 |
| Conceded | 13 | 19 |
By quality of play Genoa is ahead: 8.7 xPTS against 7.3. In the table the gap is 1 points. The gap between points and play — Genoa: +1.3, Lecce: +1.7.
Expected points over the coming rounds: Genoa — 4.6, Lecce — 4.5.