The table shows the result, xPTS shows the quality of play. Below both clubs sit side by side on every metric: where the gap is real and where luck made it.
| Genoa | Parma | |
|---|---|---|
| Place | 16 | 17 |
| Points | 4 | 4 |
| xPTS | 6.4 | 3.5 |
| Δ points − xPTS | −2.4 | +0.5 |
| xG per match | 1.03 | 0.78 |
| xGA per match | 1.45 | 2.12 |
| Scored | 5 | 4 |
| Conceded | 11 | 10 |
By quality of play Genoa is ahead: 6.4 xPTS against 3.5. In the table they are level. The gap between points and play — Genoa: −2.4, Parma: +0.5.
Expected points over the coming rounds: Genoa — 4.8, Parma — 4.3.