The table shows the result, xPTS shows the quality of play. Below both clubs sit side by side on every metric: where the gap is real and where luck made it.
| Monza | Genoa | |
|---|---|---|
| Place | 15 | 16 |
| Points | 4 | 4 |
| xPTS | 8.7 | 6.4 |
| Δ points − xPTS | −4.7 | −2.4 |
| xG per match | 1.98 | 1.03 |
| xGA per match | 1.48 | 1.45 |
| Scored | 8 | 5 |
| Conceded | 12 | 11 |
By quality of play Monza is ahead: 8.7 xPTS against 6.4. In the table they are level. The gap between points and play — Monza: −4.7, Genoa: −2.4.
Expected points over the coming rounds: Monza — 8.0, Genoa — 4.8.