The table shows the result, xPTS shows the quality of play. Below both clubs sit side by side on every metric: where the gap is real and where luck made it.
| Monza | Parma | |
|---|---|---|
| Place | 16 | 17 |
| Points | 4 | 4 |
| xPTS | 9.4 | 3.5 |
| Δ points − xPTS | −5.4 | +0.5 |
| xG per match | 1.87 | 0.78 |
| xGA per match | 1.6 | 2.12 |
| Scored | 9 | 4 |
| Conceded | 15 | 10 |
By quality of play Monza is ahead: 9.4 xPTS against 3.5. In the table they are level. The gap between points and play — Monza: −5.4, Parma: +0.5.
Expected points over the coming rounds: Monza — 8.5, Parma — 4.0.