The table shows the result, xPTS shows the quality of play. Below both clubs sit side by side on every metric: where the gap is real and where luck made it.
| Monza | Udinese | |
|---|---|---|
| Place | 16 | 17 |
| Points | 7 | 5 |
| xPTS | 11.2 | 7.2 |
| Δ points − xPTS | −4.2 | −2.2 |
| xG per match | 1.61 | 1.18 |
| xGA per match | 1.81 | 2.41 |
| Scored | 16 | 9 |
| Conceded | 22 | 18 |
By quality of play Monza is ahead: 11.2 xPTS against 7.2. In the table the gap is 2 points. The gap between points and play — Monza: −4.2, Udinese: −2.2.
Expected points over the coming rounds: Monza — 6.1, Udinese — 3.0.